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Since I have all the news links off the Page Two php a link above, I thought this might be a good place to vent my reactions to the news, or just my reflections on stuff or whatever .. Those of you who have wandered around in my Jottings pages might remember that my jottings' reflections began this way.
Most people who read these *.thought.org pages know me from my geek days and my 6+ years of Answerman column on Daemonews. This should be different since I've switched from computer geekism to philosopher geekism. --If I ever blather about cron'ing tasks, adding spam blocking to sendmail.mc, or adjusting your private DNS entries, feel free to yell at me.
See what happens... .15nov04
PS: I *will* prune this file from time to time... .
The most rational changes to the American Social Security Administration are as follows, in my humble opinion. These changes to not follow along the lines of John Maynard Keynes who advocated borrowing money (in some cases) in a crisis situation. --But then, Social Security is not in a crisis.To my global readers, this mini-essay is probably of little import. This is primarily for "My Fellow Americans," in Lyndon-Johnsonese. Still, my thinking on the Social Security issues may be of some slight interest; you decide.The changes I advocate now are three:
I make no pretense at being an economist. But as John Kenneth Galbraith has noted, economics and philosophy are sister disciplines. And I am philosopher-in-training... .
- Index the age when full benefits can begin (fully) to the increase in life expectancy. This indexing could be done every five or ten years; it might need to be a Constitutional amendment. --Until this change happens, up the full-benefit age to at least 70 years. Parenthetically, since cut-throat capitalism devalues "older workers" and these people may spent the last years working for significantly reduced wages, the Social Security benefits would be based on the last 10 or 15 working years instead of the current five years.
- Leave the current 7.65% worker-and-employer payroll deductions alone. This at least until the Post-War Baby Boomers and the Boomers' Echo generations have passed into history.
A voluntary 0.5% to 3.5% additional worker-and-employer deduction could be made to the private capital market, to some global index fund. Over 50 years of labor, even one half of one percent would compound into tens of thousands of dollars in additional retirement benefits.
I can hear the cries of woe from the Wall-Marts and MacGreaseburger chains. I cannot imagine the ploys of their greed via lobbyist and TV commercials. But you reading this probably can! (The readers of my thought.org sites are among the upper 5% in hard IQ levels. At least. )
A teenager starting his or her first job probably wouldn't mind having an extra dollar or two withdrawn and saved into the private market; he or she knows that this will (or may) pay off in the future. Moreover, the young may get some quiet satisfaction inn forcing their cheap shake mega-billion-dollar corporation to cough up.
- The third proposal for fixing the American Social Security problems is to have no upper-income limit where the deductions apply. If you earn $5,000 in a calendar year or $50 billion, the same 7.65% would apply.
Recently I bought a headphone radio at WalMart--this, thanks to a gift-card from a friend. It's a nice radio, a Sony, but I paid full list price. WalMart makes most of its money by luring customers with lost-leaders (they lose money on the lead product, and once you are in the store, other items are full price or just slightly under.
If I hadn't happened to do some price comparison shopping I would have just assumed that the $20 was a special WalMart "Low, Low" price. --Oh, and FWIW, I found a no-name brand headphone radio for $10. Yes, it didn't have Sony's mega-base feature, but that was the only significant difference. The facts are that with the great leaps in integrated circuit technology, virtually all there is to any small transistor radio (AM/FM) is one chip. The rest is the interface: tuning, earphones, batteries, and what have so. So I'd bet that the no-name radio was functionally equivalent to the name-brand.
Unless the United States (and other developed economies) invent the "next big thing" immediately, or sooner, look for a slow, steady, and inevitable number of high-paying jobs to be outsourced to poor-but-developing countries.
The "last big thing" was the development of the home computer and ancillary technologies and services. Biotechnology is the "current big thing"; this is where the West leads right now. ---A number of the poorer countries' biotech efforts are exploding, of course. And without the inane "moral" restraints that have the States, at least, straight-jacketed. If/When these secondary countries develop cures for the worst human afflictions, they will be rolling in trillions of dollars, or whatever replaces the dollar as the universal currency.--- Should the Western democracies have a genius stroke of good luck and make some fabulous breakthroughs and, say, wind up with cures for a number of hideous diseases, then the West can breathe easy for awhile. In the sciences, things always lead to newer and better things. This may -- or may not -- save us from the scourge of losing even more jobs to outsourcing. To climb back on the high-paying jobs locomotive, the "next big thing" has to happen in the West very soon. I believe one of the newest technologies will be the creation of personal robotics. [More thoughts on this later.]
I do not see an immediate financial crash, nor crisis. But as the U.S. continues to lose upper class jobs to other countries, the dollar is destined to a steady, inexorable decline. Job growth continues, driven largely by credit-card orgasms of spending. But the newer jobs are in the lower-paying end of the spectrum. These jobs will lead not only to a falling greenback, but in a steady decline in the standard of living, modulo whatever benefits more efficiency technology offers.
If the 20th Century was dominated by the West, and particularly the U.S., the 21st Century belongs to most of Asia. Hopefully the 22nd Century will belong the World.
Is it time to require students in the United States to begin learning at least two foreign languages starting in pre-school or kindergarten? Four or five languages would be even better, I think, but two--perhaps Mandarin and Spanish--for starters. Most Americans will flip you off at the mention of this idea; the educational establishment balks at lacking the resources; others complain that knowing English and two foreign languages ain't gonna get you a job or otherwise put food on the table. --And besides, English is where it's happenin'; since America can nuke everybody else back to the stone age... . It isn't until you realize that it won't be long until South Asia and East Asia-- read "China"--will be among the leading societies. My hunch is that the Far East will be #1 by mid-century. That's a little more than a generation from now. Collectively, the East is among the oldest civilizations. Wisdom flourished there. It's time that more of us tapped into this wealth: language is an excellent gateway.
Last update: 19 January 06
In the past several years there has been increasing teeth-gnashing over everything from the cost of living, economic growth, global population explosions, and who-will-do-the-undesirable-jobs in the "developed" world. In the coming months I will suggest realistic solutions--ones that are already in development and getting closer to being real in the near future.Here's a hint: robotics. Nothing absurd like "R2D2"; things that are doable now and in the next few-five years. Harvesting fruits and veggies, picking apples, assisting builders both on site and for factory-built construction. Robots that clean houses, units that do laundry with a minimum of human input. These and much more. Getting into any level of detail is slightly risky, but I'll give it a shot. I'll be adding to the "Essays" section of http://transfinite.thought.org in the next several month. Right now the only thing to suggest is to have Zero fears of human-level intelligent machines taking over. Human intelligence will take quantum leaps by mid-century. ----Stay tuned.